Partial Least Squares Method to Modeling Cosmic Ray Intensity Based on Variation of Solar Activity and Interplanetary Plasma Parameter

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Annisa Novia Indra Putri, Dhani Herdiwijaya, Taufiq Hidayat

2023 AIP Conference Proceedings Vol. 2941 Issue 1 Conference paper Cited by 0 Quartile

Abstract

The various studies about correlation between cosmic ray intensity with solar activity that have been carried out that shownan anti-correlation between the intensity of cosmic rays and the sunspots number (SN). The anti-correlation also shows some of time lag. This time lag also has different shape in different solar cycles. In this paper, modeling analysis will be used with various of solar activity and interplanetary plasma in space such as the number of sunspots, solar wind speed, Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) tilt, and the speed of the CME halo. The data that we used, have vary in time intervals from 1749 to 2022, with daily to monthly time resolutions. Analysis of the relationship between the cosmic ray intensity with all of five parameters will be using the Partial Least Squares (PLS) method. The result is that the five parameters show a negative correlation with the intensity of cosmic rays. In addition, the parameters of SN, solar wind speed, HCS, and IMF have a relatively strong influence on the modulation of cosmic ray intensity. © 2023 American Institute of Physics Inc.. All rights reserved.

Affiliations

Astronomy Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Institut Teknologi Bandung, WestJava, Bandung, Indonesia; Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences Study Program, Institut Teknologi Sumatera, Lampung, South Lampung, Indonesia