Yudha Setiawan Djamil, Tri Wahyu Hadi, Wirid Birastri, Wang Xianfeng
Towards the end of the twenty-first century, Earth climate has been projected by various general circulation models (GCMs) organized by the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5). However, multi-model projections of the future rainfall over Indonesia have a low level of confidence as shown by the broad range of its uncertainties. Several efforts and initiatives to improve the confidence level of the future climate projections over Indonesia, such as model selection, multi-model ensemble, and dynamical downscaling, were engaged recently. However, despite all the significant improvements, several issues remain, such as suppression of the smaller scale rainfall trend (e.g., Java) by the ensemble projections of the well-performed models. Another problem is the opposite sign of rainfall trend between the GCM simulation and its downscaled product. Engaging on a high-resolution climate model well-verified by most of the multi-scale features of the climate system made available to date (e.g., diurnal, paleoclimate, etc.) is one of the suggestions to further improve the spatial representation of the region and minimize the multi-model uncertainties, which then eventually improve the confidence level of the future rainfall projection over the region. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
Research Centerfor Climate and Atmosphere, National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), Bandung, Indonesia; Atmospheric Science Research Group, Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB), Jl. Ganesa 10, Bandung, 40132, Indonesia; School of Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Sumatera Institute of Technology (ITERA), Jl. Terusan Ryacudu, Way Hui, Kecamatan Jati Agung, Lampung Selatan, 35365, Indonesia; Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore; Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 639798, Singapore
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